Early Result Analysis for Early Birds

Chances are you need to make decisions regarding your next mailing before a majority of the results from your most recent mailing are in. Fortunately, “the relative performance of lists settles down pretty quickly and becomes stable as early as the second week of orders,” says Jim Coogan, president of Sante Fe, NM-based consultancy Catalog Marketing Economics. “Lists that start strong tend to stay strong, and lists that respond poorly in the first weeks will continue with soft response.”

Which is not to say there aren’t challenges in predicting results based on just 10% or 20% of response. Historic response curves are key in projecting total response based on a small sample. “Response curves from previous mailings during the same season are very statistically significant for predicting catalog response,” Coogan says. “Response curves for the same catalog change very little from one year to the next. Often two weeks’ worth or less of data are reliable for projecting results to catalog end.” The larger the circulation, the sooner the early results mirror final results, he adds.

The response from some lists will fall off quicker than from other lists, however. Generally speaking, house file names tend to have the longest sales tail. Web buyers, Web prospects, and cooperative database buyers can have a shorter buying life and a quicker fall off in response than names from traditional rental lists.

Partner Content

3 Critical Components to Achieving the Perfect Order - NetSuite
Explore the 3 critical components to delivering the perfect order.
Streamlining Unified Commerce Complexity - NetSuite
Explore how consolidating multiple systems through a cloud-based commerce platform provides a seamless experience for both you, and your customer.
Build the Foundation for Great Customer Experiences - NetSuite
Understand how consistent, timely, relevant and personalized experiences are enabled by having the right technology foundation in place.
Strategies for Maximizing Mobile Point-of-Sale Technology - NetSuite
Learn the top five innovative ways to utilize your mobile POS technology to drive customer engagement, increase sales and elevate your brand.