The Ones to Watch

For more than 100 years, cataloging has been an upstart business. But by 2001, look for the big boys to be taking over. And as you'd expect, the people who'll be leading this bigger, grown-up industry won't be kids with hot ideas just out of business school. By and large, they'll be experienced, seasoned executives with a common quest: to build big companies, carefully but aggressively, one solid catalog at a time.

Among those listed here, few are gamblers. Almost all are acquisition-minded and old hands, having led, built, or rescued other catalogs. And all have strong, optimistic growth goals.

In fact, most of these names are pretty familiar. They're proven not only at surviving a tougher catalog industry, but at thriving as well. "The number of catalogs that make it from one year to the next, and continue to grow, are clearly in the distinct minority," says David Leibowitz, managing director of Burnham Securities. Well, if this bunch doesn't make it, maybe nobody can. The year 2001 is only three years away, but as Leibowitz points out, "three years is an awfully long time" in the catalog world. Stay tuned.

THE ONE TO BEAT

Dennis Pence, cofounder/CEO, Coldwater Creek

Company founded: 1984. Publicly traded since 1997.

Catalogs: gifts and apparel book Northcountry, apparel titles Spirit of the West and Milepost Four, linens book Bed & Bath

Key manager: Ann Pence, creative director

1997 sales: $246.7 million

1997 earnings: $11.7 million

1996 sales: $143 million

1996 earnings: $5.9 million

Growth rate: 66% annually since 1992

House file: 1.65 million 12-month buyers

Track record: American dream. Dennis Pence was a national marketing manager for Sony, Ann Pence a freelance ad copywriter when they decided to chuck it all and move to Sandpoint, ID.

Why a leader: In a tough, oversold casual apparel market, Pence managed to give serious chase to L.L. Bean and Lands' End. To raise capital, Pence could have sold the company. Instead, he bet on himself, going public and making a killing.

What they say: "I think the catalog is a real star."-consultant Don Libey

"Ultimately, by segmenting its customer file and seeing product opportunity, Pence has created a tremendously successful catalog."-Craig Battle, managing director, Tucker Capital

Prospects: Although Coldwater stumbled a bit this spring, most believe that in timing, marketing, and product selection, Pence has struck gold.

THE (YOUNG) OLD HAND

Mike Smith, president/CEO, Lands' End

CEO since: 1994

Company founded: 1963. Publicly traded since 1986.

Catalogs: apparel catalogs Lands' End, Kids, Beyond Buttondowns (tailored men's clothing), First Person Singular (tailored women's clothing), and Willis & Geiger (adventure wear); linens book Coming Home

Key managers: Gary Comer, founder/chairman; Bradley Johnson, chief financial officer; Chip Orum, chief operating officer; Mary Nordloh, creative director; Francis Schaecher, senior vice president, operations; William Ferry, vice chairman, sales

1997 sales: $1.26 billion

1997 earnings: $64.2 million

1996 sales: $1.12 billion

1996 earnings: $51 million

Growth rate: Sales up 9% during Smith's watch; earnings up 21%

House file: 9.6 million 36-month buyers

Track record: Smith, just 37, had already spent 14 years at Lands' End and led the successful Coming Home launch before being appointed to top post.

Why a leader: Nobody does it better than Lands' End. Under Smith's leadership, the catalog has continued its innovative marketing strategies and strong intuition for product, which is all layered over enormous brand equity. The cataloger is now opening up serious overseas potential in Japan, the U.K., and Germany.

What they say: "Everyone will still be chasing Lands' End in 2001. It is very, very strong and will be getting stronger. The children's book started at zip and right now is a category killer. The company plans extremely well: It does five-year plans and gets through them in four years."-AnonymousP rospects: Lands' End is continually surprising in its marketing prowess. If Smith keeps the cataloger on course, it will likely only get stronger.