The Ones to Watch

	THE OLD RELIABLES

Williams-Sonoma (includes home furnishings cataloger/retailers Pottery Barn and Hold Everything as well as namesake kitchenware cataloger/retailer)

Still the best at balancing profitable, quality-oriented retail and cataloging. It's the company to emulate as more and more retailers-such as Esprit and Banana Republic-revive their direct mail efforts in order to keep the revenue growth ticking.

Bear Creek Corp. (food catalog Harry and David, roses catalog Jackson & Perkins, gifts book Northwest Express)

CEO Bill Williams has brought in seasoned senior managers, significant public relations efforts, and invested $50 million or so in capital improvements. That means the king of food catalogers, at $325 million in sales, has big plans to get even bigger-particularly in retail and in nonfood categories.

	THE WILD CARDS

SPIEGEL: Having staggered under recent losses ($33 million last year, on sales of $3.18 billion), the general merchandiser nevertheless appears to have an asset in Eddie Bauer, which has 503 stores and $1.5 billion in catalog and retail sales. But with the president's office taken over by three executives (Mike Moran, general counsel; Harold Dahlstrand, chairperson/chief human resources officer; and James W. Sievers, chief financial officer), who's got the vision for the future?

Predictions: "It drags along, and I don't which way that thing could go."-consultant John Lenser

"Unless it does something awfully foolish, it's got an awful lot of financial resources, and it should be able to get itself out of its current slump."-Tony White, Abacus

GENESIS DIRECT: This consolidation upstart believes in buying and starting smallish catalogs-mostly in sports licensing-in hopes of bringing them enough economies of scale to get them profitable. So far, according to sources, it's been losing approximately $1.50 for every dollar it takes in. But the company is still new (founded less than two years ago, it had anticipated losing money), and point man Warren Struhl has been able to get some big investors believing in his dream. Now it's attempting to raise money in the public market as well.

Predictions: "I don't totally understand the model, though I have the utmost respect for them....Struhl has gotten a lot of big hitters to buy into it. I wouldn't bet against him."-Craig Battle, Tucker Capital

"It either will be licking its wounds or will have downsized considerably."-Anonymous

AMAZON.COM: The first and biggest household name Web marketer. Great concept (any book you want, and click! you've got it), lots of admirers, cute commercials. Just one problem: It still doesn't make money. And to some observers, the economics of the business suggest that it may never make money.

Predictions: "Sooner or later, stockholders will realize they're holding $2 billion in securities and it's nothing but a smoking hole. Fifty-eight percent of customers are repeat buyers, and even so there's not enough margin to ever operate the company profitably."-Anonymous

"No doubt, Amazon is breaking ground. [By allowing customers to interact], it's getting people to recognize that [catalogers] can give them more informationabout themselves than they could have gotten without having had that contact. It's intimacy economics, and I see that happening [more] in the direct business."-futurist Watts Wacker-DC

---

Diane Cyr is a freelance writer based in Los Angeles.