Online Sales Expected to Reach $107.4 Billion This Holiday Season

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Adobe released its online shopping predictions for the holiday season.  Adobe predicts that online sales will reach $107.4 billion, an increase of 13.8%, while in-store retail is expected to grow 10% less.

Cyber Monday is expected to become the largest online shopping day in history, generating $6.6 billion in sales, a 16.5% growth compared to last year.  Sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to increase 15% year-over-year to $2.8 billion.

One out of every six dollars spent this holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, leading to $19.7 billion in sales.

Larger retailers, (those with more than $100 million in annual revenue) will see higher order values and desktop conversion rates than smaller retailers, (those with less than $100 million in annual revenue.)  Smaller retailers are expected to have the mobile advantage with a higher average conversion rate of 1.9% by attracting more shoppers with an intent to buy.

The study also forecasts that shoppers will gravitate toward purchasing lower-priced items online as opposed to big ticket items.  While toys and apparel saw a 39% and 20% unit growth last holiday season, jewelry sales came in low, with a 3% decline in unit growth.  These trends are expected to continue this holiday season.

“This year’s record-breaking online holiday shopping season is built on the strength of the big players,” said Mickey Mericle, Vice President of Marketing for Insights at Adobe in a press release. “We predict the biggest retailers with wide selections, easy shopping experiences and free shipping, to drive online holiday growth this year. Still, there is opportunity for savvy small retailers to win, specifically with mobile experiences.  As revenue growth plateaus, retailers will be competing hard for customers by offering steep discounts and providing a seamless customer journey.”

Some of the best dates for deals is expected to occur on Black Friday for appliances, jewelry and electronics.  On Cyber Monday, discounts will be the highest for toys at 19.1%.  The Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving is predicted to offer the best deals for Christmas décor and with average discounts of 22.7%.

Furniture and bedding prices along with pet products are expected to see the steepest price cuts on Giving Tuesday with 12.8% and 21.7%.  Some products will likely be out of stock before they see these major discounts.  Appliances, tablets and televisions are most likely to be out-of-stock on Thanksgiving Day, before seeing the largest discounts on Black Friday.

While desktop purchases are predicted to account for two-thirds of revenue this holiday season, mobile is serving as a starting point for consumers.  For the first time, web traffic on smartphones and tablets are predicted to be higher than desktops, at 54% and 46%.


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