Steadily improving economic fundamentals should moderately boost holiday sales in the stores and online this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday sales forecast.
Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice expects total holiday sales to climb to between $981 and $986 billion, representing a 4% to 4.5% increase in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) over last season. This growth rate is a moderate improvement over last year’s 2.8% gain.
Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 13.5% to 14% increase in non-store sales in the online and mail order channels during the 2014 holiday season.
“While online sales continue to climb, digital customer interactions through both virtual and physical store channels present greater sales opportunities than online or mobile commerce alone,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader. “Our research indicates that 84% of shoppers use digital tools before and during their trip to a store. Additionally, those shoppers convert, or make a purchase, at a 40% higher rate than those who do not use such devices during their shopping journey.”
Deloitte forecasts that digital interactions will influence 50%, or $345 billion, of retail stores sales this holiday season. This figure reflects the extent to which consumers’ use of desktop and laptop computers, tablets, and smartphones influence brick-and-mortar store sales.
Paul said retailers should focus on the right functionality, rather than more functionality, when creating digital experiences this holiday season.
“Rather than offer their full ecommerce site on a mobile device, for example, retailers may be more effective by helping consumers compare prices, scan through local assortments, and navigate the store,” Paul said. “Retailers that better understand how consumers make purchasing decisions, then deliver tools that support that process in a way that is consistent and complementary across online, mobile and store channels — may have the advantage this holiday season.”