Online prices continue to fall as inflationary pressure has eased and retailers discount to clear out stocks ahead of Q4 ordering. Prices were down 2.3% year-over-year in May, the largest drop since the onset of the pandemic, and down 1.2% from April 2023, according to Adobe Analytics. It was good news for consumers but bad news for retail ledgers. Big-ticket categories remain challenged.
Retail sales inched up 0.4% in April from the prior month, exactly matching a rise in the Consumer Price Index, according to figures from the U.S. Commerce Department. It represented the first gain in retail sales since January, a positive sign amid economic fears and continued inflation. Excluding gas and auto, retail sales were up 4.3% in April vs. a year ago, adjusted for inflation.
A trio of industry experts offered a mostly gloomy picture of retail economic indicators at this week’s Shoptalk conference at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, noting recessionary trends and a nagging reduction in demand for durable, higher-ticket goods as consumers keep their powder dry.
Buy now pay later (BNPL) usage continues to grow, as cash- and credit-strapped consumers dinged by inflation use it for a wider variety of purchases. The share of online purchases using BNPL increased by 14% and revenue grew by 27% in 2022, according to new data from Adobe Digital Insights.
Walmart reported ecommerce growth of 17% in Q4 to $80 billion, representing 13% of total sales, and beat expectations overall, but warned of a challenging climate for the rest of the year based on consumer sentiment and macro signals, sending uneasiness through the industry and the markets.
With a month of 2023 behind us, everyone in retail is wondering how consumer trends will play out this year in the face of ongoing (but lessening) inflation and a tricky macroeconomic picture, to say the least. To get a better understanding of the months ahead, we spoke with Sarah Wyeth, Retail Sector Lead for S&P Global Ratings.
James Carville famously told Clinton campaign workers in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and that mantra dominated again 30 years later, as high inflation and recession fears dogged the retail industry this year, leading to massive discounting to drive sales, often at the expense of profits.
The CEOs of Nordstrom and Walmart both spoke this week of continuing concern over inflation affecting shoppers heading into the back half of the 2022 holiday season, as credit cards are maxed out and kitchen table budget meetings weigh using funds for gifts vs. essentials, causing retail jitters.
With lowered holiday shopping expectations amid inflation concerns, consumers hunt for deals as early promotions lured them in but not in the hoped-for droves, and inventory remains a challenge. Retailers continue to discount and promote to clear out stock, increasingly using resale platforms like Poshmark, ThredUp and Etsy.
Ad spend: should you really be thinking of cutting it in a recession (or near one)? Consider the contrarian route. Inflation is over 9% and consumer sentiment is falling for the first time since early 2020. Counterintuitively, these recessionary markers indicate it’s actually the perfect time for ecommerce companies to step up advertising.