Record sales of $1.35 billion are expected on Thanksgiving Day, a 27% increase over last year. Sales on Cyber Monday are forecasted to be $2.6 billion, an increase of 15%. Black Friday is predicted to be the fastest growing online sales day of the year at $2.48 billion, an increase of 28%.
Adobe not only predicts Thanksgiving Day will be the best day to shop online for bargains, it thinks consumers will avoid brick-and-mortar shopping and shop from mobile devices.
“Consumers will be able to get the best deals this year if they shop online on Thanksgiving Day,” said Brad Rencher, senior vice president, Digital Marketing at Adobe. “Smartphones and tablets continue to drive more and more sales online, which will lead to new sales records on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. With over 30 cents on the dollar spent via mobile devices, Thanksgiving Day will surpass Black Friday as the most mobile shopping day ever recorded.”
But despite double-digit growth on those three days, Adobe said ecommerce sales will be down this holiday season year over year. Online holiday shopping is expected to increase 10%, compared to 12% last year.
Online prices are expected to increase on Tuesday after Cyber Monday. In-store prices are expected to match online prices except for specific in-store promotions on Black Friday and inventory clearance offers close to the holidays. Also of note: Out-of-stock messages will increase five-fold on Cyber Monday due to increased demand and limited supply.
Social continues to play a significant role earlier in the purchasing journey, as 2% of purchases will come directly from social media sites including Facebook, YouTube, Pinterest and Twitter, which is flat compared to last year. According to an Adobe survey of more than 400 U.S. consumers, only 25% of them will consult social media to help them make holiday purchase decisions while 40% of 18 to 34 year olds are likely to check social networks for gift ideas.
Amazon, eBay, Target, Walmart and the Gap are the most talked about retailers across social networks. Amazon is beating eBay, Gap edges out H&M while Target wins against Walmart. Twenty percent of Amazon’s social buzz originates from California while 35% of eBay mentions come from New York. Both New York and California contribute 13% of social media buzz for Target.